India ascends, and US embraces a partner; In Bush trip, some see strategic shift
Boston Globe, February 27, 2006

By John Donnelly, Globe Staff | February 27, 2006

NEW DELHI -- For more than a half-century, the relationship between India and the United States was characterized by bitterness and distrust.

But in the last two years, the two countries have forged a tight alliance that many analysts believe will become part of a shifting global order in the 21st century -- a shuffling of power and influence widely forecast to feature the rise of both China and India, which not only account for a third of the planet's population but also are experiencing an economic renaissance.

When President Bush makes his first trip to India, a three-day visit that begins Wednesday, he is expected to fervently embrace India's ascendancy -- partly, analysts say, because of its potential as an economic partner and partly to blunt China's growing market strength.

''The new thing for Bush is India -- it's the world's biggest democracy, it has high tech, it's about India's economic potential, and it's insurance against an aggressive China," said Stephen P. Cohen, author in 2002 of ''India: Emerging Power," who spent more than a month recently studying and traveling in India.

For more than four decades after India's independence from Britain in 1947, the US-India relationship was chilly, at best. India, as head of the Non-Aligned Movement, was more firmly in the Soviet sphere of influence and seemingly as an impulse, opposed American positions on global issues. That relationship improved after the Cold War ended in 1991, but India's test of a nuclear device in 1998 again threw the two countries into a period of turmoil.

The nuclear question

Even now, with relations never better, the question of India's nuclear ambitions still hovers over the two governments. Last July, Bush and the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, surprised the world when they signed an agreement in which the United States would share nuclear technology for India's civilian energy use. Eight months later, senior-level negotiators from both governments are still working out details on India's separation of nuclear power into civilian and military sectors, along with establishing international oversight for India's civilian programs.

The US Congress will have to approve the arrangement, and several critics, including Representative Edward J. Markey, a Democrat from Malden, have said that allowing the sale of nuclear technology to India would embolden Pakistan to seek similar treatment and other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, to flout the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. India has never signed the treaty.

''If we cooperate with India, we are setting terrible precedents with North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran," Markey said in a telephone interview from Washington. ''We would immediately hear back from Iran, which could ask why we are giving special privileges to India, which didn't even sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and not giving privileges to them."

R. Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of state for political affairs, strongly rejected that argument. ''How is it possible to compare India with Iran in the nuclear sphere?" he told reporters on a trip last month to India.

''On the one hand, you have a country -- India -- that has never been a proliferator, that has been very responsible in safeguarding its nuclear technology. On the other hand, you have a government and a regime in Iran, which the IAEA says for 18 years conducted secret nuclear research without revealing it to the IAEA," he said, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

But even critics of the nuclear deal, including Markey, favor closer US-India ties in principle.

On a person-to-person level, meanwhile, the relationship has been strong for decades.

Doing business

Sitting on a curb outside the US Embassy recently in New Delhi, clusters of people waited for relatives who were applying for visas inside. No one seemed anxious. Here, unlike most places in the world, the chances of getting a visa to the United States were quite good.

''India is not Pakistan, India is not Afghanistan, and India is definitely not Iraq," said Naresh Kumarjain, 53, whose daughter, Hinajain, was in the process of getting a visa to study at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. ''India has good relationships all over the world, but especially now with America."

An estimated 80,000 Indians now have student visas for the United States. In fiscal year 2005, 313,815 Indians received visas from the US Embassy and consulates in India, up from 304,734 the year before. More Indians now receive visas to the United States than do citizens of any other country other than Mexico, according to the US Embassy here.

The relationship is expressed in other ways as well.

The growing influence of the United States can be seen in billboards advertising American goods, shipping containers heading for America, and all-night call centers in which operators who have perfected American accents take orders and answer questions from callers in the United States.

In the United States, the impact of India is felt through 1.5 million Indians living in America who make up an influential and wealthy political lobby; the growing numbers of information technology companies that have set up centers in India; and even in the mail-order catalogues of companies such as Pottery Barn, which offers dozens of Indian-made accessories for American kitchens and living-rooms.

In the northwestern city of Jodhpur, India's famous ''Blue City" for its sky-blue buildings, Naresh Jain, 24, manager of Maharaja Emporium, said that business with Americans is booming -- mostly from US buyers representing retail outlets.

Standing amid colorful tapestries and huge wooden carved statues of mustached kings, Jain said his family's business ships between 100 and 150 containers full of furniture and art to the United States every month.

''They're going to New York, Boston, Chicago," he said. ''With the US and India governments coming closer together, we expect business will get only better. More tourists will come, more store buyers will come."

Jain also said the trend toward outsourcing work to India would help both countries. ''It not only helps us with jobs. It helps you as well because we can do things more cheaply and that allows your companies to spend the money elsewhere," he said.

In the south-central city of Hyderabad, where Microsoft, Oracle, and Adobe have set up development centers, Arvind Kumar, the top district government official, said he sees the American and Indian cultures beginning to merge.

''I wouldn't have said this 10 years ago, but I don't feel as if the United States is something all that different from India, at least in terms of work produced, work conditions, and the pressures of life," said Kumar, who is the collector of Hyderabad, overseeing all district public projects. ''It's fast becoming one. If you are in San Jose or a suburb of Boston, there are streets where you feel you are in Hyderabad."

Kumar said Indians are even emulating Americans' spending habits. ''The trend here is shifting from savings to spending," he said.

In New Delhi, the capital, many of the tourists at India Gate -- a memorial arch built for the 90,000 Indian soldiers who died in World War I -- are Indian expatriates living in the United States or Canada.

''The way life used to be here before, well, I felt sorry for people," said Bina Bhavsar, 44, who walked with her husband and two children. They now live in Toronto. ''But now whatever the kids want here in India, they can get -- just like in Canada or the States. McDonald's, Kentucky Fried Chicken, anything!"

Amid unity, some strains

Yet, not everyone appreciates the close ties. While polls indicate that high numbers of Indians feel positively toward the United States -- a 70 percent approval rating in one recent poll -- a sizable minority strongly objects to the Bush administration's policies in Iraq and elsewhere.

''I would keep the US at arm's length, so we can chart our own course," said Dinesh Mohan, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi. ''The US is not seen as benevolent by almost any country now."

India, though, is sure to assert several independent views that conflict with US policy. For instance, much to the consternation of the United States, which seeks to isolate Iran, India intends to follow through with plans to build a natural gas pipeline from Iran across Pakistan. India says it must make such deals to meet growing energy needs; the Bush administration's response was to threaten sanctions on Indian companies.

But Bush's visit is expected to obscure such differences, highlighting the bond instead.

''We are hopeful that this new relationship is going to go on to even greater heights in the future," Burns said on his trip last month.

Outside the US Embassy, many echo that feeling.

''We have four uncles and two aunts applying for visas," said Derrick Masih, 14, a US citizen, whose family moved back to India two years ago. Masih said his father, a doctor, was inside helping his brothers and sisters. The family returned to India because of ''my dad's patriotism. My dad loves his country."

Derrick, who is in eighth grade, said he plans to become a cardiologist and set up practice in America. ''I'm just going to be working hard until that day," he said. ''India is advancing. In five or 10 years, you will see a new India, a new face on the globe."

He foresees a life of moving back and forth between India and the United States -- in part, he said, ''because our countries have become so close."